El Nino 2026 Category Risk Guide

Harvests across all three origins are currently decent to very good, so this is a delayed-impact story rather than an immediate one. Farmers and processors are now forecasting a significant drop in Sri Lanka’s crop from Q2 2027, with major manufacturers expected to raise prices from late 2026 into early 2027 ahead of that.

Key Points

Sri Lanka

• There’s around a 62% chance of El Niño conditions (acute water stress and higher temperatures) emerging across June–August 2026 and persisting through at least the end of the year. Seasonal crops are highly exposed, with drought impact already being managed by the government; established coconut palms are more resilient.
• The tall variety can handle a dry season of up to three months; the Dwarf × Tall hybrid struggles beyond two months. Prolonged dry weather without rain still slows growth and reduces yield.
• Heat affects flowering rather than fruit already on the tree: flowers drop in the heat, meaning fewer fruits appear around a year later, so any impact from this year’s heat shows up as a smaller harvest in 2027, not immediately.
• Storms remain a shorter-term risk to collection and shipping, separate from the drought picture.
• Farmers and processors are now forecasting a major drop in the crop starting Q2 2027, in line with this delayed-impact pattern.
• Major Sri Lankan manufacturers are expected to raise prices from late 2026 into early 2027, ahead of the anticipated drop.

Philippines

• El Niño has not yet hit the Philippines coconut market, but the consensus is that it will. We’re finding a number of suppliers reluctant to commit to Q1 2027 shipments and supply.
• A 92% probability has been put on moderate-to-strong El Niño impact on the Philippines in Q4 2026.
• Risk is particularly concentrated in central and northern Luzon, historically the most drought-prone regions.

Indonesia

• There are early signs that El Niño is building, and some issues are already being felt. Exporters are growing increasingly nervous about what the months ahead will bring.
• As Philippine and Indonesian coconut supply tightens, industry reporting flags a rising risk of coconut oil being diluted with palm kernel oil or other vegetable oils, and of virgin/refined or organic-status substitution.

Turkish dried fruit (raisins, sultanas and apricots) is having a normal season, with no El Niño impact seen so far and a record year expected for both size and quality. Chile now has an initial update: still too early to assess any impact, though nothing of concern so far and conditions are being watched closely. China’s freeze-dried strawberry and raspberry lines are covered separately under Freeze Dried Fruit.

Key Points

Turkey

• The 2026 crop is tracking normally; no significant El Niño impact has been seen, and none is expected for the rest of the season.
• This year’s apricot crop is estimated at around 90,000 tonnes, progressing well under good conditions.
• Barring a natural disaster, expect a record year for both crop size and quality across all products.
• Heat and drought stress ahead of harvest can raise the risk of aflatoxins in dried fruit, while poor drying conditions or humid storage add the risk of ochratoxin A: our partners’ usual mycotoxin testing stays in place through this year’s harvest and drying season.

Chile

• Latest international climate forecasts point to El Niño strengthening through the second half of 2026, possibly continuing into 2027, with current outlooks indicating a strong event.
• It’s still too early to accurately assess the impact on Chilean agriculture: the actual effect on yield, quality and availability will depend on how the season develops.
• No specific concerns currently affecting supply programmes; weather developments are being monitored closely, with regular contact kept with producers and industry partners.

This is the clearest case this season of El Niño hitting one supplier while leaving the others unaffected. Vietnam’s crop is genuinely smaller this year; Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Brazil are all having stronger seasons. The net effect right now is prices easing globally, even though Vietnam itself remains tight.

Key Points

Vietnam

• Harvest is finished. Production is confirmed down 8–10% on last year due to poor growing-season weather.
• New flowers are forming for next season, and conditions have been good so far. This is an important stage to watch given ongoing uncertainty.
• Prices are down slightly month-to-month and around 8% below last year.

Sri Lanka

• Harvest is under way, with the main “bold” pepper crop still to peak in August.
• Production is expected 10–15% higher than last year.
• Prices are down slightly, around 10% below last year.

Indonesia

• The new harvest is improving, with a better crop expected overall (10–15% up).
• Prices are down around 4% on last year.

Brazil

• Harvest is ongoing into September, with a bigger crop expected (10–15% up) and healthy stock levels.
• Brazil is currently the cheapest origin globally, and for the first time this year is trading below last year’s price level.

All three of these lines are tight right now: carryover stock from last season is well down across the board, and prices have already moved a long way. Good rain in late July has supported this year’s sowing, but it will be several weeks before we know how the new crop is shaping up. Material meeting EU pesticide standards is especially scarce.

Key Points

Chilli

• Good rain in the second half of July eased concerns and encouraged more planting.
• Carryover stock from last season is around 60% lower than normal.
• Certified pesticide-compliant material is limited.
• Heat and drought stress ahead of harvest raise aflatoxin risk, with poor drying or humid storage adding ochratoxin A risk on top: our partners’ usual mycotoxin testing stays in place on affected lots through this period.

Capsicum

• Harvest for the current crop is finished; sales are running on carryover stock, down 35–40% on last year.
• Prices are running around 65% above last year, though they have levelled off month-on-month.
• Sowing for the new season is going well, with the growing area up 30–35% in central India.
• Certified pesticide-compliant material remains limited, in line with the category as a whole.

Paprika

• Harvest is over, and carryover stock is down around 50% on last year.
• Prices are up around 90% on last year, one of the sharpest moves in this report.
• New season sowing is around 70% complete.
• Certified pesticide-compliant material remains limited, in line with the category as a whole.

India’s coriander crop is the tightest story in this report: production is down sharply, stock is low, and prices have roughly doubled on last year. Eastern Europe is also short on carryover stock, but prices there have stayed flat, suggesting buyers are waiting for the upcoming harvest rather than bidding up scarce material.

Key Points

India

• Production is down more than 20% on last year, with carryover stock down 20–30%.
• Prices have climbed for three months running and are now roughly double last year’s level.
• Stock is expected to run out around January 2027, and the next crop isn’t ready until March/April 2027, a real gap in between: worth treating this window as a period to double-check origin documentation rather than relax it.

Eastern Europe

• Sowing is complete and the growing area is up slightly; the next harvest is due soon.
• No carryover stock from last year is keeping the market firm.
• Ongoing international conflicts are adding to shipping delays and costs.
• Prices are up around 40% on last year, but have stayed flat month-to-month.

The one settled category in this report. Carryover stock is above average, and prices have only just crept above last year’s level after months of trading below it. The one to watch isn’t this year’s crop but next year’s: fewer farmers are planning to grow cumin after a run of weak prices.

Key Points

India

• Stock levels are healthy, the best-supplied major spice in this report.
• Prices have turned around over the last three months and are now around 5% above last year.
• Planted area for next season is expected to fall 25–30% on weaker recent prices.

Freeze-dried strawberry is the higher-risk line here: China’s main growing regions saw real production losses in the last El Niño event, and prices spiked sharply around Spring Festival. Freeze-dried raspberry is more resilient, with only indirect, inferred impacts and a more limited price effect. 2026 forecasts point to a repeat pattern: strawberry hit hardest, raspberry affected but manageable.

Key Points

China: Strawberry

• Main producing regions (Shaanxi, Shandong, Liaoning) face the same warm-winter, wet-summer pattern that caused problems last cycle: insufficient winter chilling delays flowering, and summer heavy rain and high heat drive disease outbreaks (root rot, anthracnose, grey mould).
• 2026 forecasts point to a 15–30% yield loss in main producing areas, with a 5–10% national decline.
• The price impact is expected to be sharper and faster than the yield loss: a 30–50% surge is forecast around the pre-Spring Festival period, with volatility continuing longer term.
• Mitigation under way: adjusting seedling regions to lower-risk areas, strengthening soil management, and more precise, targeted pest control.

China: Raspberry

• China-wide raspberry-specific data is more limited, so this assessment is based on related crops with a similar chilling and disease profile (such as blueberry), and is rated lower risk than strawberry.
• 2026 forecasts suggest a 10–20% yield loss in main producing areas, with southern regions expected to stay stable.
• Price increases of 10–20% are forecast, though much of this is expected to come from logistics and labour costs rather than El Niño directly.
• Mitigation under way: breeding more heat-tolerant varieties, greater use of greenhouse protection, and improved water and fertiliser regulation.

India’s ginger crop is under real pressure: dry, compliant material is very scarce, and prices are up sharply. China’s ginger, by contrast, has never shown any sensitivity to El Niño and isn’t a concern this year. Brusco’s own stock for this season is due in September, which will help bridge the gap.

Key Points

India

• Fresh ginger is moving well, but dry, pesticide-compliant material is very scarce: low yields and wet weather have delayed drying.
• Prices are up around 70% on last year.
• Separately, heavy rain has reportedly damaged next season’s crop as it was being planted; the impact on yield won’t be clear until later this month.

China

• Harvested once a year, in September. Has never shown any sensitivity to El Niño, and none is expected this year.

Nigeria

• A better crop is expected this year, with a larger growing area.
• Prices have stayed flat, and the dry-weather risk we were previously watching hasn’t materialised so far.

Morocco’s rosemary harvest is under way and going well, with only modest price pressure carried over from thin stock last season.

Key Points

Morocco

• Harvest has started and is going well, with yield almost matching last year.
• No carryover stock from last season is keeping prices firm, around 12% above last year, though that gap has narrowed recently.

This year’s harvest and sowing are both complete, and carryover stock is tight. Rainfall has shifted in the wrong direction for two key growing states, adding real uncertainty to next year’s crop. Prices are already up on last year, and a clearer picture isn’t expected until mid-September.

Key Points

India

• Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are now short of rain (a change from the picture a month ago), and some farms are already seeing lower groundwater levels.
• Maharashtra, by contrast, has had good rain this month.
• Prices are up around 15% on last year.
• Reduced rainfall raises aflatoxin risk in the field, and as prices firm, the incentive for origin or grade substitution: our partners’ usual testing and sourcing checks stay in place given carryover stock is already tight.
• Rainforest Alliance certified turmeric is available as an alternative, for extra sourcing assurance.

China’s tomato crop has already taken confirmed damage this season, with yields down. Spain and Portugal remain stable for now, with plenty of water in reserve and no clear link to El Niño yet. South America’s harvest is already complete, so there’s no exposure left this year.

Key Points

China

• Very heavy rain hit Inner Mongolia earlier in the season, followed by an unusually hot April and then an unusually cool May, poor timing for young plants.
• Heat has since damaged flowers and fruit, and tomatoes are coming through smaller than normal.
• Yield is now confirmed down 15–20% this season.

Spain & Portugal

• Crop remains stable. Heat stress during flowering and storms late in harvest are the main factors being watched, not El Niño directly.
• The key Spanish supplier has enough water in reserve to cover the next six harvests, with no change reported since mid-July.

South America

• Harvest is already complete for this cycle, so there’s no further weather risk this season.

China’s frozen vegetable crop overall is rated medium risk, but that masks significant regional variation. Onions and peppers grown in Inner Mongolia and Gansu are the areas to watch most closely.

Key Points

China: General

• Heavy rain caused serious flooding through mid-July, with some crops wiped out completely.
• From August, the forecast turns to persistent heat and drought, especially affecting autumn planting.

China: Onions

• Yunnan’s harvest was already finished before this year’s El Niño took hold, so it’s unaffected.
• Central growing regions (Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong) are close to normal.
• Northeast China is expected to be down 10–20% on yield.
• Inner Mongolia and Gansu, the hardest hit, are expected to be down 15–25% (up to 30% in the worst areas).
• Expect tighter supply of storage-quality onions from October onwards.

China: Peppers

• Shanxi green peppers: yield expected down 10–15%, prices expected up 15–30%.
• Inner Mongolia red/yellow peppers: yield expected down 15–25%, prices expected up 25–40% (more for the best grades).

Spanish ambient onions aren’t expected to be affected: El Niño is primarily a Pacific Ocean event, not one that reaches this region directly. China’s onion and garlic season has been delayed by heavy rain, and next year’s crop could be at risk if hot, dry weather continues.

Key Points

Spain (Ambient Onions)

• The supplier doesn’t expect any impact, given El Niño’s Pacific origin.

China

• Heavy rain has pushed the season back by at least a month.
• If high temperatures continue alongside low rainfall, the 2027 crop could be affected.

Dehydrated white onion relies heavily on India’s winter crop, and that crop is currently under some strain. The monsoon-season crop is unaffected. Rain so far has been decent but not quite enough for a bumper harvest, and a few key growing areas are seeing real shortfalls.

Key Points

India (Gujarat)

• The Kharif (monsoon-season) crop has stayed out of danger all the way through this year’s El Niño.
• The Rabi (winter) crop is the one to watch: it’s the backbone of dehydrated white onion supply, and it’s currently under stress.
• Rainfall so far has been decent, but not enough to produce a bumper crop.
• Nearby growing areas, Kutch, Jamnagar and Gir Somnath, are facing serious rain shortfalls and drought-like conditions.
• There’s still hope for more rain through to mid-October. If it doesn’t arrive, some farmers may switch away from onions toward faster-growing table and kitchen crops instead, which would shrink the area planted with onions.