Brusco Market Risk Briefing — November 2026

What’s happening

• Europe’s 2026 wine harvests are small: France is forecast at around 34.9 million hectolitres, 14% below the 2021–25 average, with Champagne around half last year’s level and Burgundy and Beaujolais around 30% below average; Germany’s 7.7 million hectolitres is around 10% below its ten-year average.
• Lower volumes and very ripe, concentrated grapes put pressure on fixed contract volumes, prices and alcohol specifications — particularly for bulk wine — increasing the incentive for undeclared blending or water addition.
• Around 30,000 bottles of premium Italian wine (an estimated €5m) were stolen from a Tuscan storage facility in October; stolen stock may resurface through grey or informal markets where provenance is harder to verify.

What it could mean for sourcing: undeclared blending or dilution, appellation/vintage claims, ABV verification, grey-market provenance.

What’s happening

• Pesticides were the second-largest source of food-safety alerts in October (85 alerts, led by chlorpyrifos at 22%, acetamiprid 11% and thiamethoxam 6%), while sauces & condiments (16%) and rice/pasta/noodles (13%) were again among the most-flagged ingredient sub-categories.
• New EU Recommendation (EU) 2026/2329 asks Member States and food businesses to collect occurrence data on N-nitrosamines in fermented, pickled and spiced foods, reported against nitrite and nitrate use. No maximum levels are set yet, but the data may inform future limits.
• Garlic and ginger inputs face grade-substitution and mould pressure (see Prepared Garlic), and the strengthening El Niño is expected to increase heat and drought risk across the Indian subcontinent and flooding risk in parts of East Asia.

What it could mean for sourcing: pesticide-residue compliance, nitrosamine monitoring in fermented/pickled products, input grade and quality.

What’s happening

• No pulse-specific developments were flagged this month. USDA FAS has lowered its 2026/27 EU oilseed forecast, with EU soybean yields around 15% below the five-year average after heat and drought.
• The EU Deforestation Regulation applies to large and medium operators from 30 December 2026 and covers soy and derived products — suppliers of soy-based lines (including fermented soy products) placed on the EU market will need geolocation and due-diligence evidence.
• The World Bank forecasts food commodity prices around 10% higher in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027, with fertiliser prices forecast 14% higher in 2026 — pointing to continued cost pressure on pulse sourcing.

What it could mean for sourcing: EUDR readiness for soy lines, input-cost pass-through, residue compliance (ongoing watch item).

What’s happening

• No chestnut-specific developments were flagged this month. Food Forensics lists nuts among its Christmas watchpoints: seasonal demand concentrates pressure on particular grades, formats and delivery weeks even where overall supply is adequate.
• Across the wider tree-nut market, wet harvests have cut sound-kernel recovery in Turkish hazelnuts (frequently below 40% versus around 50% normally) and California’s walnut crop is forecast 16% lower — a reminder to keep moisture, insect damage and mould under review on autumn-harvested nuts.

What it could mean for sourcing: festive-peak availability, moisture and mould control, delivery-window pressure.

What’s happening

• No coconut-specific developments were flagged this month. El Niño continues to strengthen towards a December 2026 peak, with strong-to-very-strong conditions likely to persist into early 2027.
• Given reliance on Philippines- and Indonesia-origin coconut, continued monitoring of crop condition, quality and freight cost is recommended; the wider edible-oil complex also remains unsettled, with EU oilseed forecasts revised down and Ukrainian sunflower-oil exports constrained by port damage.

What it could mean for sourcing: El Niño/climate exposure (watch item), origin concentration, freight and oil-complex cost.

What’s happening

• Medjool date deliveries from Palestine, Jordan and Israel are running three to four weeks late in one European importer’s programmes, with fewer premium grades; offers are reported around 20% higher from Israel and 35% higher from Palestine, and some buyers are moving to smaller sizes or lower grades. Deglet Nour is more available but is not a like-for-like replacement.
• Mycotoxin issues persist in Turkish dried figs, with further ochratoxin A and aflatoxin border rejections in late October; dried fruit accounted for 17% of produce safety alerts in October.
• Cranberry supply is also tight, with Wisconsin’s crop estimated around a third lower and Germany’s below half of last year’s yield — relevant to dried and sweetened cranberry availability.

What it could mean for sourcing: origin and grade claims, size substitution, mycotoxin contamination, Christmas availability.

What’s happening

• On 10 October the FSA issued a Food Alert for Action for shell eggs from Ukrainian producer Yasensvit (code 3UA1012066) after detection of Salmonella Enteritidis; the eggs have been associated with a cluster of 36 illnesses in England during 2026.
• H5N1 avian influenza was confirmed in commercial poultry near Belford, Northumberland, on 19 October — the second GB outbreak of the 2026/27 season after H5N5 on the Isle of Lewis on 2 October, after which GB lost its HPAI-free status. Defra has raised the wild-bird risk to medium.
• Domestic layer capacity is strengthening: UK layer chick placings reached 3.6 million in August, 9.7% higher year on year. Spain has also confirmed new Newcastle disease outbreaks in Valencia; APHA rates the risk of introduction to the UK as medium.

What it could mean for sourcing: imported-egg Salmonella control, origin and production-system assurance, HPAI movement restrictions.

What’s happening

• Fruit inputs are tightening across several origins: Proarándanos has cut Peru’s blueberry export forecast from 382,000 to around 366,000 tonnes after heat reduced fruit firmness, South Africa’s Ceres cherry crop is expected to be more than 50% smaller, and plum production could fall 5–10%.
• In Europe, Agreste forecasts the French dessert-apple harvest 15% below 2025 and pears 9% lower, while October storms disrupted the start of the Spanish and Corsican citrus season.
• Fruit was the largest share of produce safety alerts in October (42%), reinforcing residue and quality checks on freeze-dried fruit raw materials.

What it could mean for sourcing: raw-material availability and cost, quality variability, pesticide-residue compliance.

What’s happening

• Severe drought in Karnataka is affecting agricultural production, with losses of up to 80% described in some areas; a state survey estimated that around 70–75% of the turmeric area has been affected, while carry-forward stocks have fallen. Tighter supply is raising prices and the risk of economically motivated adulteration.
• In Maharashtra, the food regulator has restricted sales of loose, unpackaged spice powders as part of action against adulteration, including prohibited colours. India supplied around 88% of UK turmeric imports in 2024.
• Herbs & spices accounted for 21% of ingredient safety alerts in October, and the new EU N-nitrosamine monitoring recommendation includes spiced foods.

What it could mean for sourcing: adulteration, prohibited colours and fillers, quality variability, supplier verification.

What’s happening

• The hot, dry summer has left lasting UK brassica losses: broccoli yields are up to 50% below expectations in the worst-affected areas, red cabbage is particularly tight, and Polish cauliflower supply has fluctuated after drought, cold spells and heat.
• The British Carrot Growers Association estimates 2026 yields 15–30% below expectations, and UK stored carrots could run out earlier than usual in spring 2027; French fresh-market production is forecast at 335,100 tonnes, around 11% lower.
• Britain’s 2026 potato crop is provisionally estimated at around 4.2 million tonnes (roughly 440,000 tonnes below a five-year-average yield), with storage concerns over sprout-suppressant uptake, skin set and bruising; Spain’s crop is down to 1.8 million tonnes. In Spain, around 130 hectares of Almería greenhouses were damaged in the 17–19 October storm, and Thrips parvispinus is delaying some pepper planting.

What it could mean for sourcing: reduced availability, smaller/variable sizing, storage-quality losses, import dependence.

What’s happening

• No material developments were flagged this month. Smart Salt® supply and specification remain stable, with no new market or integrity issues to report.

What it could mean for sourcing: none flagged this month (stable).

What’s happening

• Spain’s first official 2026/27 forecast puts olive-oil production at 1.60 million tonnes, 23% above last season, and Greece expects around 280,000–300,000 tonnes; Italian production could fall around 20–25%. Spanish extra virgin olive oil was around €3.30/kg at origin in mid-October, well below earlier levels.
• Authenticity concerns continue: Turkey listed further olive oils diluted with seed oils on 27 October, and Jordanian police seized 5,000 tins in a suspected repacking investigation after imported oil was reportedly sold as Jordanian.
• USDA FAS has lowered its 2026/27 EU oilseed forecast and Ukrainian sunflower-oil exports remain constrained by damage to ports and storage, although English oilseed rape (1.04 million tonnes, up 43%) provides some cover. EU Recommendation (EU) 2026/2335 adds chlorinated-paraffin monitoring in oils and fats for 2026–2029; smaller European wine harvests may also tighten wine-vinegar raw material.

What it could mean for sourcing: origin substitution, seed-oil dilution, regional price differences, contaminant monitoring.

What’s happening

• No onion-specific developments were flagged this month. Storage crops more widely are under pressure after the hot, dry summer — UK potatoes and carrots both face storage-quality concerns — and 696 abstraction-licence restrictions remain in place in England, raising concern that farm reservoirs may not refill before the 2027 season.
• Vegetables accounted for 31% of produce safety alerts in October. Continued monitoring of stored-onion quality, sizing and later-season import needs is recommended.

What it could mean for sourcing: storage-quality deterioration (watch item), sizing, later-season import reliance.

What’s happening

• China’s 2026 garlic harvest is estimated 13.5% higher than 2025, keeping prices relatively low. Traders describe firm prices for premium garlic alongside plentiful, cheap industrial-grade material, increasing the incentive for grade substitution.
• A Peruvian exporter alleges irregular Chinese imports are depressing prices in Mexico and the US. Rain-affected Chinese garlic is now showing mould on arrival in Europe, estimated at 1–2% per container without rigorous pre-shipment screening.

What it could mean for sourcing: origin misdeclaration, grade substitution, mould/phytosanitary compliance.

What’s happening

• No ginger-specific supply data were reported this month, but the El Niño outlook points to increased drought and heat risk across the Indian subcontinent, and drought in Karnataka is already causing severe agricultural losses.
• Indian regulatory action against adulterated loose spice powders (including prohibited colours) is relevant to ground and dried ginger, and Food Forensics notes price gaps across ginger and garlic are increasing grade- and origin-substitution risk.

What it could mean for sourcing: climate/supply risk (watch item), adulteration of ground ginger, origin and grade substitution.

What’s happening

• Sauces & condiments made up 16% of ingredient safety alerts in October, and Canada — the third-highest origin by alert count — was led by sauces & condiments. Allergens were the third-largest alert category (9%), with undeclared sulphites (13%) and peanut (12%) leading; mustard, sesame and soy also featured.
• Input costs are rising: raw sugar reached its highest level since April 2025 after rising almost 7% in four weeks, and EU sugar-beet yields are forecast around 11% below the five-year average. Garlic grade substitution, turmeric adulteration and tomato price rises all feed through to prepared pastes.
• The new EU N-nitrosamine monitoring recommendation covers fermented, pickled and spiced foods — relevant to chutneys, pickles and fermented pastes.

What it could mean for sourcing: allergen control and labelling, input authenticity, sugar and ingredient cost pass-through, contaminant monitoring.

What’s happening

• EU tomato prices averaged €1.99/kg in September, up from €1.55/kg in August, which was already a five-year high. In Morocco’s Souss-Massa region, round-tomato acreage is estimated 10–15% lower and the winter crop is starting 10–15 days late, with smaller, less uniform early fruit.
• Spanish greenhouse tomato area is slightly lower for 2026/27, and October storms damaged protected crops in Almería and Brittany. Higher production costs mean stronger prices do not necessarily improve grower margins.
• While these are fresh-market indicators, tight European tomato supply can support processed-tomato pricing and increases the incentive for origin mislabelling further down the chain.

What it could mean for sourcing: price and supply irregularity, sizing/quality variability, origin mislabelling.